News Analysis - 21/09/2025 To 27/09/2025

1) Anthropic has struck a $1.5 billion settlement with authors who claimed their books were used to train Al systems without consent.

The settlement by Anthropic, a major player in the Generative AI (GenAI) space, to pay $1.5 billion to authors and publishers is a landmark event in the ongoing debate over intellectual property (IP) rights and AI training data. This substantial figure aims to resolve claims that the company's Claude chatbot was trained using nearly half a million copyrighted books illegally obtained from 'shadow libraries' or pirate websites. This litigation risk has become a significant operational challenge for AI companies, forcing a reassessment of their data acquisition strategy and compliance.

The court had previously ruled that using copyrighted material for AI training could be considered transformative fair use; however, a critical distinction was made: the unlawful procurement of the data from pirated sources constituted a breach. The settlement amount provides roughly $3,000 per book to the affected authors, demonstrating the potentially colossal financial liability for AI firms engaging in mass, unauthorized data scraping. This sets a strong market signal concerning the cost of capital for developing large language models (LLMs) without appropriate data licensing agreements.

The outcome may accelerate a necessary shift toward formalized data marketplaces and licensing frameworks. For the AI industry, this settlement underscores the imperative for robust governance and transparency in their training data supply chain. It also suggests a potential rise in the cost of goods sold (COGS) for AI developers, as moving away from unauthorized data sources toward licit data will require increased investment in legal-tech infrastructure and content acquisition strategies to mitigate future IP-related contingent liabilities.

2) Infosys, Wipro & other IT firms' shares drop up to 4.5% on Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fees

Shares, including American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), of major Indian IT service exporters like Infosys and Wipro experienced a sharp decline, dropping up to 4.5%, following a proposal by the Trump administration to impose a steep $100,000 annual fee per H-1B visa. This move directly targets the cost structure of the Indian IT industry, which relies heavily on the H-1B program to service clients on-site in the U.S. and fulfill their global delivery model. The proposed fee represents a massive increase from previous costs, immediately increasing the human capital cost component.

The adverse capital market reaction—seen in the stock price erosion—reflects investor apprehension regarding the potential negative impact on the companies' profitability and EBITDA margins. Analysts project that if the fee applies to existing visa holders upon renewal, it could shave 1% to 2% off sector-wide margins, indicating a severe squeeze on operating income. The sudden increase in visa expenses is a significant geopolitical risk that could force a strategic re-evaluation of the on-site model, potentially favoring greater offshoring or localization (local U.S. hiring).

To counter this regulatory headwind, Indian IT firms are likely to focus on further enhancing their offshore delivery capabilities and accelerating local U.S. recruitment to reduce dependence on the H-1B visa pipeline. While this mitigation strategy may temper top-line growth from on-site projects, a higher proportion of profitable offshore work could potentially stabilize or even improve overall operating margins in the long term, despite the short-term financial volatility and the need for significant process re-engineering in their deployment strategies.

3) India is set to commission its first private sector gold mine at Jonnagiri, Andhra Pradesh, India imports 99% of the gold it requires.

India is on the verge of commissioning its first large-scale private sector gold mine at Jonnagiri in Andhra Pradesh, a significant development in a sector where the country has been historically reliant on external sources. This project, being developed by companies like Deccan Gold Mines (DGML) and Geomysore Services, marks the first new large gold mine to be established in India in nearly eight decades. The current domestic production is minuscule, at approximately 1.5 tonnes annually, which highlights the strategic importance of this new source for national economic security.

India's cultural affinity and strong demand for gold result in annual imports of nearly 1,000 tonnes, accounting for 99% of its requirement, making it one of the largest gold importers globally. This immense import dependence translates into billions of dollars in foreign exchange outflow, negatively impacting the country's current account deficit. The Jonnagiri project is initially expected to produce around 750 kilograms (0.75 tonnes) of gold per annum, with potential to scale up to 1,000 kg within a few years, representing a substantial, though still small, increase in the domestic supply chain capacity.

This development represents a critical step towards import substitution and fostering the government's 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (self-reliant India) initiative in the mining sector. The Jonnagiri project will be a crucial proof-of-concept to attract subsequent private capital expenditure (CapEx) in gold exploration, a capital-intensive and high-risk endeavor. The long-term success of this venture, which involves a projected mine life of 8-10 years for the initial resource, is expected to encourage further resource allocation and policy reforms necessary for the revival and sustainable growth of India’s domestic gold mining value chain.

4) Nvidia to invest $100 billion in OpenAl, to open 10 giga Watt data centres for AI infrastructure.

Nvidia, the preeminent supplier of Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) for AI, has announced a colossal planned investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, solidifying a strategic partnership that dramatically shapes the global AI infrastructure landscape. This alliance not only gives Nvidia a financial stake in a key, highly-valued customer—OpenAI was recently valued at $500 billion—but also secures a massive forward-looking contract for Nvidia's high-performance chips, ensuring continued revenue stream dominance in the AI compute market.

A central component of the partnership is the joint commitment to deploy AI data centers featuring at least 10 gigawatts (GW) of Nvidia's systems for OpenAI, with initial deployment of the first gigawatt expected in the second half of 2026. This enormous CapEx commitment—equivalent to the power needs of millions of U.S. households—highlights the staggering utility consumption and scale of investment required to support the next generation of AI models. This secures the required compute infrastructure for OpenAI to maintain its competitive advantage and accelerate its AI breakthroughs.

This massive vertical integration between the leading AI chip producer and one of the leading GenAI model developers raises significant antitrust and competition concerns, as it potentially creates a strong barrier to entry for rivals of both companies. The initial investment of $10 billion is structured as non-voting shares in OpenAI, which, in turn, will use the capital to purchase Nvidia hardware. This arrangement underscores the symbiotic relationship where access to advanced hardware dictates innovation capacity, effectively intertwining the market strategies and go-to-market execution of the two AI titans.

5) Russia to complete delivery of S-400 missile air defence system to India next year, as part of the $5.43 bn 2018 deal.

Russia is slated to complete the delivery of the S-400 'Triumf' missile air defence systems to India in 2026, finalizing a massive defense procurement deal signed in 2018 valued at $5.43 billion. This strategic arms acquisition involves the supply of five S-400 systems, four of which have already been delivered. The completion of the final delivery next year is a crucial milestone for India’s national security and military readiness, significantly enhancing its Air Defence (AD) capabilities against sophisticated aerial threats.

The deal has been a major point of tension with the United States, which had threatened to impose sanctions on India under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). India's decision to proceed with the Russian deal, despite the risk of sanctions, underscores its commitment to strategic autonomy and fulfilling its critical defense procurement requirements. The S-400 system is a state-of-the-art long-range surface-to-air missile system, essential for creating an impenetrable Integrated Air Defence System (IADS) to cover major strategic assets.

The completion of the S-400 deliveries by 2026 will allow the Indian Armed Forces to fully operationalize the five-squadron configuration, providing a robust deterrence mechanism along its borders. Furthermore, India has already expressed interest in acquiring more advanced missile systems, including the S-500, indicating a long-term strategic partnership in the defense technology domain with Russia. This sustained capital expenditure in advanced weaponry is part of India’s overall risk management framework to secure its territorial sovereignty and manage regional geopolitical complexities.

6) Navi Mumbai International Airport to commence operations on Sept 30, Govt to make it a major cargo hub.

The Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA), a major infrastructure project developed as a joint venture (74:26) between Adani Airport Holdings Ltd. (AAHL) and CIDCO, is scheduled to commence commercial operations on September 30. This new facility, which is being built at an investment of ?16,700 crore, is strategically vital for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) as it will alleviate severe congestion at the existing Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (CSMIA) and implement a long-awaited "twin-airport strategy" for the financial capital.

In its initial phase, NMIA is designed to handle 20 million passengers per annum (MPPA) and a substantial 0.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cargo. Upon full completion of its five-phase development, the airport’s total capacity utilization is projected to soar to 90 MPPA and a massive 3.2 MMT of cargo annually. This exponential capacity expansion demonstrates the government’s intent to leverage NMIA’s strategic geographical location to establish it as one of the country's key global transit and cargo hubs, significantly boosting India's logistics and supply chain infrastructure.

Major airlines like the Air India Group have already announced ambitious plans, starting with 20 daily departures and scaling up to 60 daily departures by Winter 2026. This aggressive market entry by airlines underscores the anticipated demand. By focusing heavily on cargo capabilities—a key pillar of India’s overall trade facilitation strategy—NMIA is poised to transform the country's air freight ecosystem, providing a new gateway for international trade and driving regional economic development through enhanced connectivity and a significant boost to the region's overall economic contribution.

7) Govt to exceed ?47000 cr disinvestment target this yr: DIPAM Secy

The Secretary of the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM), Arunish Chawla, has expressed strong confidence that the government will surpass its disinvestment target of ?47,000 crore for the current fiscal year (FY). This optimistic outlook is supported by the fact that approximately ?22,000 crore of the target was already achieved in the first quarter itself, indicating effective execution and portfolio management of the government's public sector undertakings (PSUs) equity holdings.

The strategy to exceed the target involves a multi-pronged approach, including a pipeline of upcoming Offers for Sale (OFS), minority stake sales, and a few Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of PSUs, contingent on capital market stability. Furthermore, the government anticipates concluding the strategic disinvestment of key assets, such as IDBI Bank, within the current financial year. This focus on divestment serves the dual objective of unlocking capital for government spending and improving market float for various PSU stocks, especially those where the government's holding is currently over 90%.

Beyond divestment receipts, the government is also projecting to exceed ?1.2 lakh crore in dividend receipts this year, underscoring the vital financial role of its equity stakes. The successful acceleration of the disinvestment process, in contrast to missed targets in previous years, is a positive development for fiscal consolidation and resource mobilization. It also reflects the government's balanced capital allocation strategy, aiming for both public sector reforms and providing significant capital to fund other priority projects and social overhead capital investments.

8) Deadly for our economy: France's richest man Arnault on proposed 2% tax on ultra-wealthy.

Bernard Arnault, France's richest man and CEO of luxury goods conglomerate LVMH, has fiercely criticized a proposed 2% wealth tax on the ultra-wealthy, warning that such a measure would be "deadly for the French economy." The proposed "Zucman Tax" targets net assets valued above €100 million (approximately $118 million) and is projected to impact the country's top 1,800 households, potentially generating up to €20 billion in annual state revenue.

Arnault’s strong stance reflects the classic supply-side economics argument: that high taxes on capital and wealth discourage investment, risk-taking, and job creation, leading to a detrimental effect on the overall economic growth trajectory. The primary macroeconomic risk cited by critics is capital flight, where wealthy individuals and entrepreneurs would simply relocate their assets and businesses to lower-tax jurisdictions, effectively draining the country's private capital base and negating the intended tax revenue.

Despite the elite opposition, the proposal has significant public support, with a poll by the French Institute of Public Opinion (Ifop) showing 86% of respondents in favor, highlighting a strong political and social demand for greater wealth redistribution and tax fairness. The measure is currently a point of political contention, with the ruling government facing pressure to implement it to secure legislative support. The debate crystallizes the fundamental tension between maximizing fiscal receipts through progressive taxation and maintaining a favorable investment climate to encourage job-creating private enterprise.

9) Russia proposes to supply & produce 5th-generation Su-57 fighter jets in India.

Russia has put forth an ambitious proposal to India regarding the acquisition of its fifth-generation fighter jet, the Su-57 ‘Felon’, structured as a two-phase deal involving both outright purchase and domestic production. The offer seeks to capitalize on India’s urgent operational needs and its pursuit of strategic autonomy in defense manufacturing, presenting the Su-57 as a potent alternative to Western fighters like the F-35.

Under the preliminary offer, India would initially purchase two squadrons of the Su-57 in a fly-away condition, with the subsequent phase involving the license-built production of another three to five squadrons at facilities like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in Nashik. Crucially, the Russian proposal includes full Technology Transfer (ToT) and access to source codes, a significant concession intended to address India's long-standing concerns over reliance on foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) for customization and integration of indigenous weapon systems.

This potential deal represents a major boost for India's 'Make in India' defense initiative and would be a significant leap in military capability, addressing the anticipated fighter squadron shortfall in the coming decade. While the Indian Air Force (IAF) assesses the Su-57's operational maturity, the proposed collaboration could potentially lead to a mixed fleet strategy—balancing existing aircraft with new fifth-generation capabilities. For Russia, this large-scale export would provide essential CapEx funding for its own defense industry amidst international sanctions pressure.

10) Bharat International Rice Conference, to host 1,000 global buyers, aiming to increase rice exports from 22 mn to 30 mn metric tons.

India, now the world's largest rice producer and exporter, is set to host the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC 2025) in October, with the primary strategic objective of boosting its rice exports from the current level of approximately 22 million metric tons (MMT) to a target of 30 MMT. The conference, organized by the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce, will host over 1,000 international buyers from more than 80 countries.

This major export promotion initiative is designed to reaffirm India's dominant role, which currently accounts for over 40% of the global rice trade, and position it as the "most reliable supplier" for global food security. The event will serve as a massive business-to-business (B2B) platform, bringing together the entire agricultural value chain, including 5,000 Indian farmers and 2,500 exporters, to forge new global trade alliances and partnerships.

The aspirational target of 30 MMT represents a significant upward revision in the country's export volume strategy and is intended to enhance India's foreign exchange earnings. Discussions at the conference will focus on critical areas such as sustainable agricultural practices and mitigating supply chain risks, which are vital for maintaining India's competitive advantage in international markets. This strategic focus aims to secure long-term market share and ensure better farmer livelihood through expanded overseas demand for both Basmati and non-Basmati varieties.

11) Trump imposes 100% tariffs on pharma imports from Oct 1, Indian pharma to be hit.

The U.S. President has announced a staggering 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical imports, effective October 1, with an exception only for companies actively building manufacturing facilities in the United States. This aggressive trade policy, aimed at boosting domestic production and promoting reshoring of the pharmaceutical value chain, poses an immediate and severe geopolitical risk to Indian pharmaceutical exporters, for whom the U.S. is the largest and most critical market.

Indian pharmaceutical companies, which are dominant players in the global generics market, account for four out of every ten prescriptions filled in the U.S. and are credited with saving the American healthcare system an estimated $1.3 trillion between 2013 and 2022. The 100% tariff, even if initially aimed at patented drugs, has created immense market uncertainty, leading to stock price crashes of up to 4% for major players like Dr. Reddy's and Sun Pharma on the day of the announcement, with analysts warning of potential further drops up to 30%.

To mitigate this extreme import tariff risk, Indian firms are likely to accelerate their strategic response by increasing investments in their existing U.S. facilities or initiating new CapEx projects to qualify for the tariff exemption. This will necessitate a significant re-engineering of their supply chain and a reassessment of their global market diversification strategy, potentially increasing focus on semi-regulated markets in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia to reduce their high market concentration risk in the U.S.

12) Amazon will pay $2.5 billion in US case, it enrolled millions in Prime subscriptions without their consent and then made it difficult to cancel.

Amazon has agreed to pay a landmark $2.5 billion settlement to resolve a lawsuit filed by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) concerning its deceptive enrollment and cancellation practices for its Prime subscription service. The settlement comprises $1 billion in civil penalties and an additional $1.5 billion to be refunded to approximately 35 million affected customers who were allegedly enrolled involuntarily using "manipulative" user-interface designs.

The FTC's lawsuit centered on claims that Amazon used deceptive practices, often referred to as dark patterns, to trick millions of customers into unintentionally signing up for Prime memberships during the single-page checkout process and subsequently made it excessively difficult to cancel the subscription. This practice constitutes a serious violation of consumer protection laws and breaches the principles of ethical marketing and fair trade practices, resulting in a significant reputational damage to the e-commerce giant.

As part of the settlement, Amazon, without admitting wrongdoing, is mandated to implement clear and conspicuous disclosure mechanisms regarding Prime's terms during the enrollment process and must provide an easy, one-click cancellation path. The massive financial penalty underscores the high cost of non-compliance with regulatory requirements, forcing Amazon to make crucial changes to its User Experience (UX) design and customer lifecycle management processes to ensure greater operational transparency and consumer trust in its subscription revenue model.

13) Virat Kohli-backed WROGN faces 9% revenue decline in F25, losses up 33% to 75cr.

The Virat Kohli-backed men's apparel brand WROGN has faced significant financial performance challenges, recording a steep 29.2% decline in revenue from operations to ?243.75 crore in the fiscal year ending March 2024 (FY24), down from ?344.3 crore in the previous fiscal. Concurrently, the brand's net loss saw a surge of 28.2%, increasing to nearly ?57 crore in FY24, compared to ?44.3 crore in FY23, indicating serious issues with its business model sustainability and unit economics.

Despite efforts at cost optimization, including a 24.7% reduction in total expenditure to ?305.56 crore, the sharp fall in sales meant the company's losses widened. On a unit-level basis, WROGN spent ?1.25 to earn a rupee of operating revenue in FY24, worsening its performance from ?1.18 in FY23, a clear deterioration in operational efficiency. The negative EBITDA margin of -6.04% further highlights the brand's inability to cover its operating costs from core sales.

The challenging financial results, coupled with outstanding liabilities swelling to ?636.58 crore as of FY24, underscore the competitive pressures within the booming Indian fashion D2C segment. While WROGN recently secured ?125 crore in an all-cash deal from Aditya Birla Group's TMRW, the immediate need is a complete overhaul of its product-market fit, inventory management, and marketing strategy to reverse the adverse trend in top-line growth and achieve profitability in the highly saturated and consumer-volatile apparel market.

14) Focus at this time is our relationship with farmers, we work with 27,000 farmers across 14 states: PepsiCo lndia

PepsiCo India has reiterated its core corporate strategy is centered on strengthening its stakeholder relationship management with the farmer community, a vital component of its local supply chain network. The company’s collaborative farming model directly and indirectly engages with over 27,000 farmers across 14 states, ensuring that 100% of the potatoes used in its popular chips are sourced domestically, aligning with its "Pep+" global sustainability and transformation framework.

Through its contract farming model, PepsiCo provides comprehensive support, which includes high-quality seeds, agronomic guidance, and the crucial benefit of assured buy-back of produce at pre-agreed prices. This framework significantly mitigates the farmers' market price risk and provides them with much-needed income predictability. Furthermore, the company is promoting regenerative farming techniques and using advanced technology, such as the AI-driven Lay's Smart Farm project, to enhance operational productivity and reduce input costs for the farmers.

The company's investment in initiatives like 'Project Mitti Didi,' which trains women as 'agri-preneurs' to conduct on-site soil health testing across 12 key parameters, demonstrates a commitment to both social sustainability and optimizing resource allocation. By integrating its sourcing strategy with farmer welfare, PepsiCo is not only securing a consistent and high-quality raw material supply but also building significant social license to operate and a resilient, environmentally friendly agricultural ecosystem for its long-term business continuity.

15) Starbucks to cut 900 jobs in US after suffering 6 months of continuous sales decline.

Starbucks is undertaking a significant corporate restructuring initiative, announcing the elimination of 900 non-retail jobs in the U.S., following a difficult period marked by six consecutive months of declining same-store sales. This substantial downsizing comes on the heels of a previous round of 1,100 corporate layoffs earlier this year, signaling the seriousness of the brand's efforts to reverse its adverse financial performance under a new turnaround specialist CEO.

The job cuts are part of a broader, costly turnaround plan expected to incur approximately $1 billion in expenses, including an estimated $150 million for employee severance benefits and about $850 million related to store closures and lease termination costs. The company also announced plans to close hundreds of underperforming stores, with North American locations expected to shrink by about 1% in the current fiscal year, ending the period with roughly 18,300 locations.

These painful measures, which include closing stores where a path to financial stability is not visible, are necessary for the coffee giant to regain its market efficiency and stabilize its core business. The focus is shifting towards portfolio optimization—shuttering low-performing assets—and re-investment in the customer experience through the redesign of over 1,000 locations. This strategic human capital reduction and CapEx re-allocation are critical steps aimed at improving the company’s struggling operating margins and reviving consumer traffic and brand equity.